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PIs Muhammad Hajj, Raju Datla

Current project team members: Philip Orton, Mahmoud Ayyad, Marouane Temimi, Jon Miller

The Stevens Flood Advisory System (SFAS) is a unique and widely-used academic coastal total water level forecast system that has provided ensemble forecasts year-round since 2015. SFAS displays both current and forecast water levels at several locations spanning from Cape Hatteras to the Gulf of Maine, with its highest resolution (and primary user base) in the highly populated New York-New Jersey region. SFAS provides time series of central forecast water level and 5th and 95th percentiles to represent uncertainty (Georgas et al. 2016; Jordi et al. 2019). Forecast graphics are posted with data access on the forecast webpage and interested users can sign up to be notified of impending flooding via email warnings. A very wide user base utilizes SFAS, including residents, emergency managers, Hudson River vessel pilots, and the National Weather Service weather forecast offices (NWS WFOs). Over 1300 of these users are signed up to receive flood forecast alerts by email. The NWS WFOs use SFAS numeric forecast data in their Total Water Level forecast system to help inform their forecast guidance. Stevens provides our water level forecast data to WFOs at Upton (NY), Mt. Holly (NJ), Gray (ME) and Norton/Boston (MA).

Project Publications

Ayyad, M., Orton, P.M., El Safty, H., Chen, Z. and Hajj, M.R. (2022). Ensemble forecast for storm tide and resurgence from Tropical Cyclone Isaias. Weather and Climate Extremes, 38, p.100504. open access

Chen et al., Assessment and Improvement of a Mid-latitude Ensemble Coastal Water Level Forecast System, manuscript to be submitted in March 2025.

Georgas, N., et al., (2016). The Stevens Flood Advisory System: Operational H3E flood forecasts for the greater New York/New Jersey Metropolitan Region. Flood Risk Management and Response, 194. open access

Jordi, A., et al., (2019). A next-generation coastal ocean operational system: Probabilistic flood forecasting at street scale. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(1), pp.41-54. open access

Orton, P. M., Kerr, L., Eisler Burnett, H., & Kuonen, J. (2024). User Survey for the Stevens Flood Advisory System. https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/x6rtf59w4c/1

Orton, P. M., Z. Chen, H. El Safty, M. Ayyad, R. Datla, J. Miller, and M. R. Hajj (2021), Stevens Flood Advisory System 2020 Ensemble Forecast Assessment: NY/NJ Harbor Area, p. 21, Hoboken, New Jersey, USA. open access

Orton, P. M., Z. Chen, H. El Safty, M. Ayyad, R. Datla, J. Miller, and M. R. Hajj (2022), Stevens Flood Advisory System 2021 Ensemble Forecast Assessment: NY/NJ Harbor Area,, p. 23, Hoboken, New Jersey, USA. open access

PI:  Philip Orton, Stevens Institute of Technology

Team member / Collaborative Lead:  Bennett Brooks, Consensus Building Institute

Team member / End-User:  Kristin Marcell, New York State DEC, Hudson River Estuary Program, and Cornell University Water Resources Institute

Team member / End-User:  Sarah Fernald, New York State DEC, NOAA Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve

Funding:  NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve Science Collaborative, with supplementary funds from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)

Project periods – October 2018 through February 2020 (NOAA) and October 2019 through August 2020 (NYSERDA)

Note:  This project has ended, and final outputs and reports are listed at the bottom of this page.  

Project Summary

Coastal cities around the country are exploring structural engineering options for defending against extreme storms and the resulting surges of ocean water that cause massive flooding. Storm surge barriers or tide gates can effectively protect harbors and minimize flooding, property damage, and loss of life during large storms. These barriers typically span the opening to a harbor or river mouth and include gates that are only closed when storm surges are expected. However, even when gates are open, the barriers may reduce water flow and tidal exchange, which in turn could affect water quality and ecological processes. A study of this topic is currently underway in the New York metropolitan area, an area with highly valuable and vulnerable coastal infrastructure. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, states of New York and New Jersey, and New York City are partnering under the Harbor and Tributaries Focus Area Feasibility Study (HATS) to evaluate surge barriers and other options to manage coastal storm risks.

Scientists and engineers are increasingly recognizing the need for collaboration on research that more fully explores the advantages and disadvantages of large surge barriers. The National Estuarine Research Reserve Science Collaborative funded a “Catalyst” project for one year with the following goals: (1) to facilitate development of a collaborative research agenda that can help interested parties better understand potential barrier effects on nearby estuaries, and (2) to undertake targeted research in close collaboration and with information-sharing among scientists and key end-users such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and its partners. The project team will conduct modeling and analyses of the physical influences of surge barriers and host a series of workshops to synthesize and share information.

Anticipated Benefits

• Improved understanding of the benefits and impacts of storm surge barriers on the Hudson River and the surrounding estuarine system.
• Enhanced engagement and collaboration among the research community to expand studies of storm surge barriers.
• More scientific input to the Harbor and Tributaries Focus Area Feasibility Study, allowing the Army Corps and its partners to consider a range of costs and benefits of surge barriers.
• Increased coordination and understanding between the scientific community and key end users in the New York metropolitan area, providing a foundation for future collaborative efforts.

Project Approach

The project approach is designed to foster close collaboration and information-sharing among scientists and key end users. An advisory committee is providing input to the project team to ensure that data analyses and workshop plans are responsive to the needs of end users, such as the Army Corps of Engineers and relevant city and state agency offices. The project team is organizing a series of three to four workshops that will focus on framing the group’s collective understanding of the benefits and impacts of barriers, highlighting areas for future research or discussion, and catalyzing new collaborative research efforts. In addition to key end users and project advisors, the team is inviting additional experts on estuaries and surge barriers to some of the workshops to help address the specific topics and areas of uncertainty identified in prior meetings. The project team is summarizing workshop presentations and discussions into targeted reports and creating a future scope of work that will outline key research needs and lessons learned from the project.

Concurrently, the team is conducting hydrodynamic modeling and scenario data analyses to better understand the physical and ecological effects of a surge barrier on the Hudson River estuary and provide the Army Corps with information to inform their study. The team has models of tides, wind waves, storm surge, and three-dimensional estuarine circulation, as well as a large database of historical simulations and hypothetical storm simulations and probabilities from a prior risk assessment study, which includes both coastal flooding and inland rain flooding along the Hudson. These modeling tools will be used to address specific questions of interest to end users, such as how different barriers would affect tidal range, salinity, stratification, wave impacts, or rain-driven flooding behind a closed barrier.

Targeted End Users 

The project advisory committee and workshops are engaging a range of organizations that could use the results in different ways. Targeted end users include non-profit organizations and research institutes invested in this topic, as well as the federal, state, and city offices in New Jersey and New York that have authority to manage coastal storm risks.

 

Project Outputs

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Paper #1 – Chen, Z., P. M. Orton, and T. Wahl (2020), Storm Surge Barrier Protection in an Era of Accelerating Sea Level Rise: Quantifying Closure Frequency, Duration and Trapped River Flooding, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8(9), 725, doi:10.3390/jmse8090725.  open access

Paper #2 – Chen, Z., & Orton, P. M. (2023). Effects of Storm Surge Barrier Closures on Estuary Saltwater Intrusion and Stratification. Water Resources Research, e2022WR032317, doi: 10.1029/2022WR032317.  web | temporary free access 

Paper #3 – Orton, P. M., Ralston, D., van Prooijen, B., Secor, D., Ganju, N. K., Chen, Z., et al. (2023). Increased utilization of storm surge barriers: A research agenda on estuary effects. Earth’s Future. doi.10.1029/2022EF002991. open access

Media/Press Releases

What Venice can learn from Stevens Research

Project Scoping Session – held 3/25/2019

• Scoping Session summary
• Presentation slides used by the project team
• Presentation slides used by Bryce Wisemiller, US Army Corps of Engineers
• Miscellaneous documents
  • scoping session agenda and anticipated attendance list
  • scoping session synopsis
  • descriptions of candidate research topics
  • project advisory committee description
• Final Scope of Work
• Supplementary Scope of Work (tasks funded by NYSERDA)

Workshop: Surge Barrier Environmental Effects and Empirical Experience – held 9/13/2019

• Agenda (with linked presentation slides)
• Workshop report, including attendee list (Appendix B)

Final Workshop – held 1/28/2020

• Workshop summary and future scope of work
• Agenda and Attendees
• Presentation slides from the project team
• Presentation slides from the Corps of Engineers: Bryce Wisemiller and Kyle McKay

Final Research Presentation – held 6/30/2020

A presentation was given by Philip Orton, with Co-author Ziyu Chen, titled “Assessing the Physical Effects of Storm Surge Barriers on the Harbor and Hudson River Estuary”. This research continues as Ziyu’s PhD dissertation, so feel free to check in with him on progress.

• Presentation slides
• Recorded ZOOM webinar

Final Project Reports

• NOAA final report

Project Datasets

Data and codes for Paper #1 – Python codes and datasets for barrier closure frequency-duration analysis, trapped river water levels, and trapped water extreme value analysis.

Data and codes for Paper #2 – (1) NYHOPS/sECOM landscape elevation data (DEM) for (a) control model (CSV) (b) Alt3A barriers model. (2) Other data useful for reproducing model simulations (e.g. river, tide boundary conditions).

 

PIs:  Radley Horton, Patricia Fabian, Malgosia Madajewicz, Franco Montalto, William Solecki, Philip Orton

Funding agency:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office (CPO) Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP; formerly RISA)

Project period:  2021-2026 (Phase III) – project inception in 2010

Project website:  Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

Abstract

The diverse populations of the northeastern United States face unique and growing vulnerabilities to extreme weather events. Decision makers and communities, often with support from the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), have pioneered innovative resilience/adaptation experiments in response. The goal of CCRUN Phase III is to accelerate transformational resilience by addressing five adaptation challenges. Specifically, the need for more: 1) nuanced and actionable climate risk information; 2) robust evaluation of adaptation; 3) consideration of equity and justice; 4) coordination across spatial scales; and 5) integration of mitigation and adaptation.

To address these challenges, Phase III has an interdisciplinary team of natural, applied, and social scientists, with deep stakeholder relationships and core competencies in the Topic Areas of climate science, coasts and floods, public health, engineering and urban design, equity, and social, behavioral, and economic science. CCRUN proposes to conduct collaborative research in these Topic Areas to provide the consistency and continuity of information that underlay the region’s adaptation advances in CCRUN Phases I and II. Additionally, we now propose Integrated Projects focused on 1) Compound extreme events; 2) Coastal and inland flooding; 3) Urban-rural linkages; and 4) Alignment of sustainability, adaptation, and emissions reductions goals in resilience planning. While each project employs context-specific methodologies, several overarching approaches will guide CCRUN’s engagement with decision-makers: knowledge exchange, needs assessment, community-scale capacity building, and web-based tools. In Phase III we seek to connect our place-based research to the broader RISA network, as our Topic Areas and Integrated Projects are linked to regional and national climate impacts and adaptation needs.

Coasts and Floods Sector:  Phase I and II accomplishments

CCRUN’s “Coastal Sector” (henceforth its “Coasts and Floods” Group) has produced innovative research on storm surge, climate change impacts, compound riverine-coastal flooding, flood hazard and risk assessment, and adaptation assessment, often under advisement or in co-production processes with stakeholders. In Phase I, research focused on coastal climate risk information; in Phase II it broadened to include flood forecasting and adaptation analysis.

Our innovations in climate risk information have advanced based on stakeholder interests from mapping sea level rise effects on extreme flooding (Horton et al., 2015; Orton et al., 2015) to mapping its effects on recurrent tidal flooding (Supplemental Figure A; Orton et al., 2019; Patrick et al., 2019). Our research quantifying the importance of compound flooding in flood hazard assessment (Orton et al., 2012; Orton et al., 2018) has been influential toward NOAA’s evolving goal of integrated water modeling and forecasting. These innovations are captured in online flood hazard mappers (all linked from the Climate Resilience Toolkit) for NYC, NYS, Jamaica Bay (NYC), and Boston. This research has used hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the efficacy of nature-based adaptations that reduce flood risk (e.g., Marsooli et al., 2017) or conversely, the rise in risk that can occur from estuary urbanization (Orton et al. 2020; Li et al. in press). Educating the next generation of coastal climate service scientists has also been a focus. In two PhD dissertation projects, we evaluated metrics of gray infrastructure and climate change, including how gated storm surge barriers would perform under accelerating sea level rise (Z. Chen et al., 2020) and how grey structural flood protection affects human mortality risk (F. Zhang et al., 2020).

We have heard growing concerns from local governments and communities in NYC, Camden, Philadelphia and Boston about rainfall, river, sewer and compound flooding. For Phase III the “Coastal” sector will expand to become the Coasts and Floods Group by increasing our inland flooding capabilities. We have added hydrologist Marouane Temimi, who works closely with NOAA National Water Center on the enhancement of the National Water Model in the Northeast.

Research capabilities include flood and wave modeling (Marsooli et al., 2017; P. M. Orton et al., 2020), hydrologic modeling (Gonzalez et al., 2015), coupling of atmospheric and hydrological processes (Wehbe et al., 2019), remote sensing of hydrological processes  (e.g., Temimi et al., 2011), in situ observation of soil hydraulic parameters (Al Jassar et al., 2019; Temimi et al., 2014), compound rainfall-river-coastal flood modeling (Orton et al., 2012; Orton et al., 2018), remote sensing of coastal processes (Chaouch et al., 2012), estuary circulation and water quality modeling hazard assessment (P.M Orton et al., 2015, 2016; P. M. Orton et al., 2018), damage and mortality modeling (P. Orton et al., 2016; F. Zhang et al., 2020), adaptation assessment (P. M. Orton et al., 2015), as well as operational coastal-hydrologic ensemble flood forecasting (Jordi et al., 2019).

Coasts and Floods Sector:  Phase III plans

In Phase III, the Coasts and Floods Group will take on the following set of task areas, in addition to participation in Integrated Projects:

Provide on-demand climate risk information and research: This will build upon existing efforts for Philadelphia and NYC, but also including scheduled briefings with Jersey City, Camden and Boston to deepen these connections and address identified needs.

Study climate and urbanization impacts on inland, coastal and compound flooding, building upon our collaborative COCA/SARP-funded research (Orton and Montalto) and Orton’s NSF-funded research on separating climatic and estuary urbanization effects on flooding.

Quantify climate attribution for coastal flooding: In collaboration with the climate group above, we will operationalize estimation of effects of climate change within our real-time flood forecast system’s website, working with stakeholders to evaluate the impact.

Expand forecasting to include flood forecast mapping and improved communication. A deficiency in coastal flood observation systems is the lack of street-level observations, and we have begun deployments and research on webcam and ultrasonic sensor flood observations. These helps improve our models and enable flood forecast mapping.

Project publications

Mita, K. S., Orton, P., Montalto, F., Saleh, F., & Rockwell, J., 2023. Sea Level Rise-Induced Transition from Rare Fluvial Extremes to Chronic and Compound Floods. Water, 15(14), 2671. DOI: 2073-4441/15/14/2671. open access

Orton, P. M., Ralston, D., van Prooijen, B., Secor, D., Ganju, N. K., Chen, Z., Fernald, S., Brooks, B. and Marcell, K., 2023. Increased utilization of storm surge barriers: A research agenda on estuary effects. Earth’s Future. doi.10.1029/2022EF002991. open access

Chen, Z., & Orton, P. M., 2023. Effects of Storm Surge Barrier Closures on Estuary Saltwater Intrusion and Stratification. Water Resources Research, e2022WR032317, doi: 10.1029/2022WR032317.  web | temporary free access

Pareja-Roman, L. F., Orton, P. M., & Talke, S. A., 2023. Effect of estuary urbanization on tidal dynamics and high tide flooding in a coastal lagoon. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 128, e2022JC018777, doi:10.1029/2022JC018777.  open access

Ayyad, M., P. M. Orton, H. E. Safty, Z. Chen, and M. R. Hajj, 2022. Ensemble Forecast for Storm Tide and Resurgence from Tropical Cyclone Isaias, Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100504. web

Zhang, F., P. M. Orton, M. Madajewicz, S. C. K. Jagupilla, and R. Bakhtyar (2020), Mortality during Hurricane Sandy: The effects of waterfront flood protection on Staten Island, New York, Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-020-03959-0.  open access.

Orton, P., N. Lin, V. Gornitz, B. Colle, J. Booth, K. Feng, M. Buchanan, and M. Oppenheimer (2019), New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1439, 95-114, doi:10.1111/nyas.14011.  open access

Patrick, L., W. Solecki, V. Gornitz, P. Orton, and A. Blumberg (2019), New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1439, 115-125, doi:10.1111/nyas.14015.  open access

Gornitz, V., M. Oppenheimer, R. Kopp, P. Orton, M. Buchanan, N. Lin, R. Horton, and D. Bader (2019), New York City Panel on Climate Change Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1439, 71-94, doi:10.1111/nyas.14006.  open access

Orton, P. M., F. R. Conticello, F. Cioffi, T. M. Hall, N. Georgas, U. Lall, A. F. Blumberg, and K. MacManus (2018). Flood hazard assessment from storm tides, rain and sea level rise for a tidal river estuary, Natural Hazards, 1-29, doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3251-x.  web | PDF.

Kemp, A. C., T. D. Hill, C. H. Vane, N. Cahill, P. M. Orton, S. A. Talke, A. C. Parnell, K. Sanborn, and E. K. Hartig (2017). Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years, The Holocene, 0959683616683263. PDF | web

Orton, P. M., Hall, T. M., Talke, S., Blumberg, A. F., Georgas, N., & Vinogradov, S. (2016). A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor. J. Geophys. Res., 121. doi: 10.1002/ 2016JC011679.  open access

Brandon, C.M., J.D. Woodruff, P.M. Orton and J.P. Donnelly (2016). Evidence for Elevated Coastal Vulnerability Following Large-Scale Historical Oyster Bed Harvesting. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2016; DOI: 10.1002/esp.3931. web

Orton, P. M., S. A. Talke, D. A. Jay, L. Yin, A. F. Blumberg, N. Georgas, H. Zhao, H. J. Roberts, and K. MacManus (2015). Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 3(3), 654-673, DOI: 10.3390/jmse3030654. open access

Orton, P., S. Vinogradov, N. Georgas, A. Blumberg, N. Lin, V. Gornitz, C. Little, K. Jacob, and R. Horton, 2015. New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Chapter 4: Dynamic Coastal Flood Modeling, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1336(1), 56-66. web | PDF | NYCreport-PDF

Talke, S., P. Orton, and D. Jay, 2014.  Increasing Storm Tides at New York City, 1844-2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, DOI: doi:10.1002/2014GL059574.  web

Meir, T., Orton, P.M., Pullen, J., Holt, T., Thompson, W.T., Arend, M.F., 2013. Forecasting the New York City urban heat island and sea breeze during extreme heat events. Weather and Forecasting.  doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00012.1.  web

Orton, P., N. Georgas, A. Blumberg, and J. Pullen, 2012. Detailed Modeling of Recent Severe Storm Tides in Estuaries of the New York City Region, J. Geophys. Res., 117(C9), doi:10.1029/2012JC008220.  web

This project has a separate website: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/stormevaac