The Stevens Flood Advisory System

PIs Muhammad Hajj, Raju Datla

Current project team members: Philip Orton, Mahmoud Ayyad, Marouane Temimi, Jon Miller

The Stevens Flood Advisory System (SFAS) is a unique and widely-used academic coastal total water level forecast system that has provided ensemble forecasts year-round since 2015. SFAS displays both current and forecast water levels at several locations spanning from Cape Hatteras to the Gulf of Maine, with its highest resolution (and primary user base) in the highly populated New York-New Jersey region. SFAS provides time series of central forecast water level and 5th and 95th percentiles to represent uncertainty (Georgas et al. 2016; Jordi et al. 2019). Forecast graphics are posted with data access on the forecast webpage and interested users can sign up to be notified of impending flooding via email warnings. A very wide user base utilizes SFAS, including residents, emergency managers, Hudson River vessel pilots, and the National Weather Service weather forecast offices (NWS WFOs). Over 1300 of these users are signed up to receive flood forecast alerts by email. The NWS WFOs use SFAS numeric forecast data in their Total Water Level forecast system to help inform their forecast guidance. Stevens provides our water level forecast data to WFOs at Upton (NY), Mt. Holly (NJ), Gray (ME) and Norton/Boston (MA).

Project Publications

Ayyad, M., Orton, P.M., El Safty, H., Chen, Z. and Hajj, M.R. (2022). Ensemble forecast for storm tide and resurgence from Tropical Cyclone Isaias. Weather and Climate Extremes, 38, p.100504. open access

Chen et al., Assessment and Improvement of a Mid-latitude Ensemble Coastal Water Level Forecast System, manuscript to be submitted in March 2025.

Georgas, N., et al., (2016). The Stevens Flood Advisory System: Operational H3E flood forecasts for the greater New York/New Jersey Metropolitan Region. Flood Risk Management and Response, 194. open access

Jordi, A., et al., (2019). A next-generation coastal ocean operational system: Probabilistic flood forecasting at street scale. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(1), pp.41-54. open access

Orton, P. M., Kerr, L., Eisler Burnett, H., & Kuonen, J. (2024). User Survey for the Stevens Flood Advisory System. https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/x6rtf59w4c/1

Orton, P. M., Z. Chen, H. El Safty, M. Ayyad, R. Datla, J. Miller, and M. R. Hajj (2021), Stevens Flood Advisory System 2020 Ensemble Forecast Assessment: NY/NJ Harbor Area, p. 21, Hoboken, New Jersey, USA. open access

Orton, P. M., Z. Chen, H. El Safty, M. Ayyad, R. Datla, J. Miller, and M. R. Hajj (2022), Stevens Flood Advisory System 2021 Ensemble Forecast Assessment: NY/NJ Harbor Area,, p. 23, Hoboken, New Jersey, USA. open access